Training Course on Macro-Econometric Modeling and Forecasting Using EViews

Program brief

This course is designed to provide participants with the knowledge and tools to build, estimate, and analyze macro-econometric models using EViews software. It will focus on both theoretical foundations and practical applications, enabling participants to forecast economic indicators, evaluate policy impacts, and conduct empirical research. The course is ideal for economists, analysts, and researchers who want to enhance their econometric modeling skills and improve their ability to analyze real-world economic data.

Course Objectives

By the end of the course, participants will be able to:

• Understand the core principles of econometric modeling and macroeconomic forecasting.
• Build and estimate econometric models using EViews.
• Conduct time-series analysis, including stationarity tests, co-integration, and error correction models.
• Apply forecasting techniques, such as ARIMA, VAR, and VECM models.
• Use EViews for policy analysis and scenario simulations.
• Interpret model results for decision-making and reporting.
• Understand how to incorporate macroeconomic data into econometric models for accurate forecasts.

Recommended for;

This course is ideal for:

• Economists and analysts in government agencies, central banks, and financial institutions.
• Researchers in academic institutions and think tanks.
• Professionals involved in economic policy analysis, forecasting, and financial market analysis.
• Graduate students and early-career professionals interested in econometrics and macroeconomic modeling.

Duration

10 Days

Outline

Module 1: Introduction to Econometric Modeling

• Overview of econometrics and its application in macroeconomic analysis.
• Key concepts in econometric modeling.
• Introduction to EViews software: interface and features.
• Basics of data input, manipulation, and visualization in EViews.

Module 2: Fundamentals of Time Series Econometrics

• Understanding time series data.
• Stationarity and unit root testing (ADF, PP, KPSS tests).
• ARIMA models for univariate time series forecasting.
• Seasonal adjustments and handling seasonality.

Module 3: Building Econometric Models in EViews

• Steps to building a macro-econometric model.
• Model specification: choosing appropriate variables.
• Estimating models using OLS, Maximum Likelihood, and GMM techniques.
• Interpreting regression results and model diagnostics.

Module 4: Multivariate Time Series Models

• Introduction to Vector Autoregression (VAR) models.
• Impulse response functions and variance decomposition.
• Co-integration and Error Correction Models (ECM).
• Estimating and interpreting Vector Error Correction Models (VECM).

Module 5: Forecasting Techniques in EViews

• Forecasting with ARIMA and VAR models.
• Evaluating forecast accuracy: RMSE, MAE, and Theil’s U-statistic.
• Scenario analysis and policy simulations using econometric models.
• Using fan charts and confidence intervals in forecasts.

Module 6: Advanced Topics in Econometrics

• Non-linear models and regime-switching models (Markov-Switching Models).
• Structural VAR (SVAR) models for identifying shocks.
• Panel data analysis and forecasting with EViews.
• Forecasting under uncertainty and handling missing data.

Module 7: Policy Analysis and Macroeconomic Scenarios

• Conducting policy analysis using macro-econometric models.
• Simulating different macroeconomic scenarios and their impact on variables.
• Working with large datasets: Importing data from external sources (World Bank, IMF).
• Practical applications of econometric models in policy design.

Module 8: Case Studies and Hands-on Exercises

• Real-world case studies on macroeconomic forecasting.
• Hands-on practice: building a macro-econometric model from scratch in EViews.
• Group work and peer feedback on forecasting projects.
• Developing custom forecasts for key macroeconomic indicators (GDP, inflation, unemployment).

Module 9: Reporting and Presenting Forecasts

• Best practices for writing reports based on econometric analysis.
• Presenting forecasts to non-technical officials

General remarks

• Customizable courses are available to address the specific needs of your organization.
• The participant must be conversant in English
• Participants who successfully complete this course will receive a certificate of completion from Lenol Development Center.
• The course fee for onsite training includes facilitation training materials, tea break and lunch.
• Accommodation and airport pick up are made upon request
• For any inquiries reach us through info@lenoldevelopmentcenter.com or +254 710 314 746
• Payment should be made to our bank account before the start of training